China’s Economic Rise: What Economists Expected and What Came as a Surprise

Please join the USC U.S.-China Institute for a discussion with Barry Naughton on his assessment of what he and his colleagues got right and wrong in looking at China’s economy over the past four decades.

Shanghai skyline in 1990 (left) and 2010 (right); images from Insider.com

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China’s economic transformation has profoundly reshaped trade patterns, business calculations and the regional and global order. What aspects of China’s rise did economists anticipate? What didn’t they expect? Do economists know what China’s leaders now hope to achieve? Barry Naughton, among the foremost analysts of Chinese economics and economic policy, offers his assessment of what he and his colleagues got right and wrong in looking at China’s economy over the past four decades and what these lessons reveal about both China’s rise and the business of China-watching. 

Barry Naughton holds the So Kwanlok Chair of Chinese International Affairs at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego. Prof. Naughton is a prolific author, writing for both specialized and general audiences. He wrote Growing Out of the Plan: Chinese Economic Reform, 1978-1993 and contributed chapters to and edited many other books including Reforming Asian Socialism, The China Circle: Economics and Technology in the PRC, Taiwan and Hong Kong, Holding China Together: Diversity and Integration in the Post-Deng Era. He is the author of the widely-used textbook on China’s economy: The Chinese Economy: Adaptation and Growth (a revision of his earlier The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth). In addition to his articles in academic journals, he is a regular contributor to the China Leadership Monitor.

USCI Director Clayton Dube and USC Marshall School of Business Prof. Nan Jia will moderate the event. Submit questions in advance to uschina@usc.edu. Questions may also be submitted via Zoom Q/A during the event.

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